Fri, August 31, 2018 2:00 PM - 3:20 PM AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH LABORATORY (AERL). Decades ago, prospects seemed strong for significantly expanded global coal consumption. Studies of energy futures depicted the full geologic extent of coal as a virtually unlimited backstop energy supply that would support much higher levels of energy demand. Since then, global consumption and market prices of hard coal have doubled, providing an opportunity to recalibrate the next century's reference case with an empirically constrained outlook for this important industrial fuel source. Over this time frame, improving knowledge of world coal deposits refined estimates of their recoverable portion, reducing assessed reserves by two-thirds. Further, coal supply costs during this period increased much faster than anticipated by many energy-economy models used throughout the research community. Consequently, underlying assumptions no longer hold for many multi-decade global energy reference cases depicting a rapid surge of cheap coal production, and the conceptual framework for these scenarios needs revision, such as those underlying greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections like RCP8.5 and SRES A2r/A1F1. In this talk, we’ll explore several reasons why there is no longer evidence to support projections of a vast expansion in 21st-century coal combustion.
Speaker:
Justin Ritchie is an energy systems researcher at the University of British Columbia’s Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES). His PhD work on energy and climate economics has been published in an array of peer-reviewed journals that include Environmental Research Letters, Energy, Energy Economics, and Ecological Economics. This analysis has also sparked coverage in Bloomberg, New York Magazine, The Globe and Mail, Grist, and beyond. Before completing a PhD at IRES, his background was in electrical and materials engineering, which was supplemented while working at a number of small, medium and large sized companies, as well as an electric utility.
Location: Hakai Node (Rm 216), AERL building