Fri, September 16, 2016 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH LABORATORY (AERL). Full Title: Modeling and projecting the seafood supply and demand in the United States: a closer look at the future supply of the U.S. farmed raised catfish under alternative scenarios
Abstract: The past three decades have witnessed dramatic changes in the structure of fish supply and demand in the U.S., specifically significant changes in the composition of seafood consumption over time. In 2013, seafood imports captured almost 94 percent of domestic market share. There is a need for a more focused, specific and comprehensive analysis of the possible future of key factors that might influence supply and demand which can be of additional guidance in developing strategic policies.
This study marries the consumer preference and market modeling literature to capture the complex dynamics of the U.S. seafood market. The retail market study reveals changes in the seafood market environment over the period from 2009 through 2013. It highlights the likelihood of changing buying behavior towards more affordable seafood products. It further suggests that chilled and frozen seafood markets can be considered as a less differentiated industry as they are highly concentrated in terms of species, processed type and product form. The findings further highlight the likelihood of consumers’ perceived indifference willingness to pay towards farmed white fish which include U.S. catfish, imported catfish, pangasius and tilapia in most of the markets. Similar finding was found in terms of branding that the U.S. catfish brands have yet created a strong brand positioning in all the seafood markets.
These findings therefore suggest the likelihood of tough competition facing the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry in these coming years. The challenge becomes greater particularly seafood is not the top choice of animal-protein intake coupled with high substitutability among the farmed white fish as suggested in the literatures. Moreover, the oligopolistic competition environment (highly concentrated) with a list of strong national and private labels will add extra pressure on the brand development pathway. In order to explore the future uncertainties, a U.S. fish supply, demand and trade simulation model (USFish model) was developed to assess the effect of market forces on the catfish industry.
Location: AERL 120